The above chart is derived directly from the figures presented at the AGM all I have done is load them into Powerpoint and save the result as a .gif. No data manipulation has been done at all. There are smart algorithms I could use to smooth out the random elements and highlight the underlying trend but too many people are suspicious of these tools. Instead I simply recomend that the viewer uses the simple method from our schooldays. Run an imaginary line through what simply looks like the average. In words, back in the first few years profits were around £500 per year. There was then a period of around six years where profit/loss jumped about randomly averaging nothing. The last figure you will recall has an unexpected donation of £650 in it from BAA so the “real” figure was actually that much worse. The last few years therefore is averaging losses of around £1500. Notice that the overall effect is not a straight line downwards it is accelerating downwards.

If we concentrate on the last five years a reasonable summary would be that losses went from nothing to £1500/year but not as a straight line, for half the time it was only averaging £500. In a three year period therefore losses tripled. If the same thing happens in the next three years we will be averaging £4500/year and three years after that £13500/year. This wont happen of course because the meltdown by then will be obvious to all and remedial action will have been taken.

It is obvious that if remedial action is taken now we can level the curve out with our funds largely intact but if the committee persists in insisting that all is well then by the time it is obviously not, the damage will have been done.

If the reader follows the links to the Charity Commissioners web-site the same figures I am using are there too. When the Charity Commissioners then see the figures the chart extrapolation predicts, they will pull the plug. Don’t ever forget that the money has been made over to them and they then authorise the trustees to manage it on their behalf e.g. as a charity. Their principle function is to protect the fund, not the Hall.